Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics
Information, Trading Volume, and International Stock Return
Comovements:
Evidence from Cross-listed Stocks
Louis Gagnon and G. Andrew Karolyi
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates the dynamic relation between returns
and trading volume in international stock markets. We test the
heterogeneous-agent, rational expectations model of Llorente, Michaely, Saar,
and Wang (2002) for a comprehensive sample of 556 foreign stocks cross-listed on
U.S. markets from 36 different markets. Their model argues that investors trade
to speculate on their private information or to rebalance their portfolios and
predicts that returns associated with portfolio rebalancing tend to reverse
themselves while returns generated by speculative trades tend to continue
themselves. We test this prediction by analyzing the relationship between
trading volume and return comovements between the home and U.S. markets for the
cross-listed shares. We hypothesize that returns in the home (U.S.) market on
high-volume days are more likely to continue to spill over into the U.S. (home)
market for those stocks subject to the risk of greater informed trading. Our
empirical evidence provides support for this hypothesis, which highlights the
link between information, trading volume and international stock return
comovements that has eluded previous empirical investigations.
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